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Although it is moving too quickly to close the circulation, the tropical disturbance could intensify into a tropical storm by this weekend.

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The National Hurricane Center has not yet designated the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean as Tropical Storm Bonnie, but that could change as it is moving too quickly to close its circulation.

The system needs to slow down in order to create a closed circulation and become a tropical storm, and it looks like that will happen over the next 24 hours, according to NHC hurricane specialist Robbie Berg.

Otherwise, the system should be able to strengthen when it crosses the southwest Caribbean Sea due to warm waters and minimal shear.

As of 8 a.m., the disturbance that experts refer to as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving west at a speed of 20 mph. update. 80 miles from the system’s center, the system’s tropical storm force expanded.

According to the NHC, Thursday morning could see significant amounts of rain fall in parts of northern Colombia, followed by Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday.

Hurricane experts believe that although the system has remained disorganized, that may alter during the next 12 hours.

The system’s extremely fast pace, according to Eric Blake of NHC, is one reason why it hasn’t been able to stop a circulation yet.

Models, however, indicate that the disturbance stabilizes in the evening. The system should then wait two days before strengthening. According to Blake, it might acquire strength once more by Friday.

Tropical Storm Bonnie would be its name if given. It has a 90% chance of forming within the next five days, according to the NHC. However, it is very likely that it will develop into a tropical storm today.

Both a hurricane watch and a tropical storm watch are in place from Limon, Costa Rica, northward to the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border.

According to the forecast, the system will pass close to Colombia’s Guajira Peninsula early on Thursday and over the southwest Caribbean Sea later that day and on Friday, according to the NHC.

Scientists predict that if the system doesn’t intensify into a real storm during its trip across the Caribbean, it might turn into a hurricane by next week when it enters the Pacific.


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